Thursday, November 10, 2005

The Amman bombing was an assassination - bank on it.

It would seem General Bashir Nafeh was putting some pressure on the Palestinian extremist factions. Could there be any better reason for say...Hamas to contract out a hit to AQ? If Nafeh was coordinating with the Israelis in a crackdown, that surely would have made him a marked man.

Mark my words folks - this was no ordinary splodydope "martyrdom operation" as is being claimed by AQ Iraq - this will ultimately turn out to be an assasination of a major PA figure.

The bombers themselves would of course get fed some bullshit story about striking at the Americans, Iraq, blah, blah, blah so they wouldn't have reservations about hitting a PA general, but the planners surely had a much different goal in mind. The other two hotels would have been just distractions to muddy up identifying the real target

United Jerusalem
...The Palestinian Special Forces, under the command of the Bashir Nafeh - also a member of the unofficial "disengagement talks" - have logged a number of key arrests lately, some in coordination with the IDF and the Shin Bet. They have made arrests and neutralized bombs and suicide kits.

If we apply Occam's Razor, the only rational conclusion is this was a hit. The chances of this being a coincidence are astronomical. Note also that the general was returning from a visit to Egypt. I think its safe to say he wasn't there to discuss the latest olive crop yields. He was there to discuss the security situation on Gaza'a southern border which has been problematic for both parties.

The next question to be answered is - who within the PA had access to the general's itinerary and was in a position to leak this info to Hamas? (or some other radical faction that didn't want the PA cracking down on extremists and closing down the sieve that is the Gaza border).

Was the general's intinerary specific as the the hotel he would be at? In any case, this hit would need to look like a random bombing. Multiples would fill the bill nicely even if the general's specific hotel were known.

It should be noted that Col. Abed Allun (also killed in the bombing) was a high ranking security official within the PA, so this was a "twofer" in regards to zapping high profile PA security officials.

It also should be noted that only one [edit: now being reported as 3] Americans has been reported killed in the blast so far. This is most curious if AQ wants to strike at Americans isn't it? They've not shrunk from wasting Americans elsewhere. Why be a piker here? This aspect doesn't wash if these were just random bombings. Surely if you wanted to get Americans, a watcher could be posted to ensure that the lobbys were well stocked when the splodydopes were to be sent in.

HOWEVER, there are certain groups that have generally avoided going after Americans directly (for obvious reasons) -- one of them being Hamas. Now I'm going to speculate some:

  • Suppose Hamas needs the general dead (for obvious reasons)?

  • Suppose they don't want to be directly associated with the hit (also for obvious reasons)?

  • Suppose they contract out the hit to AQ? (in exchange for giving cover to AQ operations in Gaza)?

  • Suppose one of the terms of the deal is that not too many Americans get greased just incase the job is botched? Hamas doesn't really need a bunch of Navy Seals sneaking around Gaza snatching their honchos, so keeping the American damage to a minimum would be one of their requirements for an "outsourced" job.

  • AQ certainly needs a Gaza base far more than they needed to do a few random bombings.

  • The bullshit Islamist AQ website claims taking the blame deflect interest away from Hamas.

  • AQ gets their safe haven in Gaza.

  • The troublesome general is eliminated.

  • Not too many Americans are wasted which keeps Hamas happy with the job.

  • The details of this particular scenario may be all bullshit, but it makes a lot more sense than writing this off as just another random AQ bombing.

    There are other possible scenarios that require the general getting dead too.

    AQ's quality of recruits in Iraq has been severely damaged as I've noted previously. If the general were working with the Egyptians and Jordanians to cramp the flow of higher quality import talent from North Africa, that too would necessitate the hit. This scenario would eliminate the need for a Hamas connection and allow for an "all AQ" operation.


    Xyba said...

    Yes , you make some valid points here. Ramdomness is seldom a motivation for anyone, but specificly AQ. The gambit was very high risk in light of the alienation of Lebenon and Jordan.

    Purple Avenger said...

    I think AQ views the PA as weak willed (which it is). The Jordanians were already "on board", so they probably didn't care about torquing them.

    Having ready access to a Med port in Gaza could trump everything.